Inflation is a pressing issue in Bangladesh, and controlling it is crucial for maintaining economic stability, preserving purchasing power, and fostering sustainable growth. The inflation rate has been close to double digits for over two years now. In September 2024, point-to-point general inflation reached 9.92 percent, and food inflation reached 10.40 percent (Monthly Economic Trends, Bangladesh Bank). The average monthly wages, however, have not increased much to adjust to the cost of living.
Of course, the previous government can be blamed for failing to control inflation. It was slow to take proactive measures, such as implementing monetary and fiscal policies to counter it. Now, expectations from the interim government are mounting as prices have yet to show signs of reduction. And the Bangladesh Bank has increased policy rates to tighten the money supply.
Over the last 10-year period, general inflation increased by 45 percent, while food inflation rose by over 36 percent. File Photo: AFP
However, relying solely on monetary policy to control inflation will not be effective in Bangladesh. Clearly, where market inefficiencies and mismanagement prevail, the monetary policy cannot function optimally. Oligopolistic behaviour and market manipulation disrupt the natural balance of supply and demand, which typically helps stabilise prices. We have seen prices rise for domestically produced goods even when supply has been adequate, often due to the influence of syndicates creating artificial shortages to maximise profits. So, addressing these behaviours is critical.
During the previous government, rent-seeking by organised groups, including local party cadres, was common. Law enforcement personnel were also known to extort money from vehicles transporting goods from various districts to marketplaces. Another issue was the deliberate creation of artificial shortages by syndicates. Unfortunately, even now, such malpractices are prevalent. True, recent floods in several parts of the country have affected production, but government imports of certain commodities have not brought down prices, indicating that these malpractices continue to play a significant role in driving prices up.
In light of the high inflation and continuous erosion of purchasing power, the interim government must take all possible measures to provide relief to the public. There are 12 issues that policymakers should consider for short- and medium-term action on inflation.
First, fiscal and monetary policies must be coordinated to tackle inflation effectively. For much of the previous fiscal year, the monetary policy was expansionary, while government spending remained high. Moreover, the non-performing loans (NPL) in banks have been continuously increasing, with a part of it potentially entering the market. Additionally, the previous government relied heavily on borrowing from both the central bank and commercial banks. This over-dependence on Bangladesh Bank to meet the budget deficit was evident in 2023. In such a situation, Bangladesh Bank struggled to control inflation effectively, as it had become a lender to the government. Therefore, tightening monetary policy alone is insufficient to control inflation. A more comprehensive approach integrating both fiscal discipline and monetary tightening is essential to achieve meaningful results.
Second, high indirect taxes on imported goods, often passed on to consumers, should be reduced or withdrawn. Recently, the interim government reduced import taxes on a few items, including rice. It must be ensured that the benefits of reduced import tariffs are passed on to consumers. Given that Bangladesh’s tax-to-GDP ratio is low, the tax department is hesitant to forgo import taxes. However, streamlining the tax system and improving compliance could enhance government revenue, supporting more sustainable fiscal policies.
Third, the quality of public spending must be improved and reoriented towards more urgent issues. Energy subsidies are particularly harmful from both financial and environmental perspectives. Therefore, more funds should be allocated to social safety net programmes and climate adaptation. Since food comprises a large portion of household expenditure for poor families, high inflation has worsened their socioeconomic conditions, pushing many towards and even below the poverty level. Therefore, subsidy reform programmes are crucial for reallocating resources to protect the poor from rising prices. Of course, transparency and accountability are essential to ensure that such support reaches the right beneficiaries.
Fourth, prudent foreign exchange reserve management is crucial to maintain the stability of the taka. The depreciation of the taka against the US dollar has contributed to rising inflation by increasing import costs. Enhanced competitiveness among Bangladeshi exporters can increase foreign currency inflows, which would support the taka. Controlling capital flight is also an important step to stabilise the currency and reduce inflationary pressures from imported goods.
Fifth, food distribution through initiatives such as Open Market Sales (OMS) and Food Friendly Programme (FFP) should be enhanced. Additionally, cash support for vulnerable populations should be increased.
Sixth, as the interim government commits to reforms, a key focus should be on improving transparency in the pricing of goods. The Bangladesh Competition Commission (BCC) should create a comprehensive database to track prices from farms to markets across the country. The BCC should regularly assess the behaviour of dominant market players, investigate instances of market manipulation, and take necessary actions to ensure compliance. The commission should proactively address anti-competitive practices, such as collusion, monopolies, and oligopolies.
Seventh, since food inflation significantly contributes to overall inflation, agricultural production should be promoted through modern techniques and technologies to increase productivity and food supply. Improvements in rural infrastructure, such as roads and storage facilities, can reduce post-harvest losses and enhance supply chain efficiency, helping to stabilise food prices. Farmers should also be provided with financial and technical support to build resilience to price fluctuations and increase agricultural output.
Eighth, reducing supply chain disruptions is essential to curb inflation. Increased investments in logistics and transportation infrastructure can enhance supply chain efficiency, reducing costs and inflationary pressures.
Ninth, to mitigate supply shocks of essential commodities, the government should expand its trade partnerships. Timely imports of essential items can prevent sudden crises that lead to exorbitant prices.
Tenth, the government should ensure sufficient procurement from farmers at fair prices. This can help reduce inflation by increasing market efficiency, stabilising prices, and guaranteeing fair returns for farmers.
Eleventh, improving the connection between growers and markets is essential. By engaging directly with markets, farmers can obtain better returns since intermediary margins are eliminated, which also reduces consumer prices.
Twelfth, digital platforms, such as e-commerce websites and mobile apps, can empower farmers by allowing them to connect directly with buyers, bypassing traditional intermediaries. This improves price transparency and reduces reliance on middlemen. Preparations, such as digital literacy training and internet access, will be necessary for this approach.
Therefore, controlling rising inflation in Bangladesh requires a multifaceted approach that combines various policies. This multidimensional approach demands collaboration among multiple ministries and departments, the private sector, farmers, and other stakeholders.
Dr Fahmida Khatun is executive director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) and non-resident senior fellow of the Atlantic Council.
Originally posted in The Daily Star on 29 October 2024